After leaving their jobs, they have partnered, found and run Advaark, also an advertising agency, together for seven years. Several high-profile clients that they gained from their own reputation in advertising industry gave them a good start. Over time, they build trust and long-term relationship with their clients thanks to their core competency, the production of unforgettable ads.
Paleoclimatology dates back to the 19th century, and the concept of examining varves in lake beds and tree rings to track local climatic changes was suggested in the s. This was the basis of a "schematic diagram" featured in the IPCC First Assessment Report of beside cautions that the medieval warming might not have been global.
The report discussed the difficulties with proxy data, "mainly pollen remains, lake varves and ocean sediments, insect and animal remains, glacier termini" but considered tree ring data was "not yet sufficiently easy to assess nor sufficiently integrated with indications from other data to be used in this report.
Bradley and Phil Jones composited historical records, tree rings and ice cores for the Northern Hemisphere from up to the s to produce a decadal reconstruction. It stated that, in this record, warming since the late 19th century was unprecedented.
The section proposed that "The data from the last years are the most useful for determining the scales of natural climate variability". Recent studies including the reconstruction by Hughes and Diaz questioned how widespread the Medieval Warm Period had been at any one time, thus it was not possible "to conclude that global temperatures in the Medieval Warm Period were comparable to the warm decades of the late 20th century.
In at least some areas, the recent period appears to be warmer than has been the case for a thousand or more years".
The UN Conference on Environment and Development was held in Rio de Janeiro inand produced a treaty framework that called for voluntary capping of emissions at levels. Government representatives gathered in Kyoto later during and turned this framework into a binding commitment known as the Kyoto protocol.
Bythe Clinton Administration had signed the treaty, but vigorous lobbying meant ratification of the treaty was successfully opposed in the Senate by a bipartisan coalition of economic and energy interests. Lobbyists such as the Western Fuels Association funded scientists whose work might undermine the scientific basis of the treaty, and in it was revealed that the American Petroleum Institute had hosted informal discussions between individuals from oil companies, trade associations and conservative policy research organizations who opposed the treaty, and who had tentatively proposed an extensive plan to recruit and train scientists in media relations.
Global Change Research Programover the scientific consensus shown by the IPCC report and about the peer reviewed status of the papers it cited. He said the Science Committee had been told of this, and of comments by one IPCC reviewer that this Stick to the core or go for more misleading and the text should say "Composite indicators of summer temperature show that a rapid rise occurred aroundthis rise was prior to the major greenhouse emissions.
Since then, composite temperatures have dropped slightly on a decadal scale.
Fromthis was complemented by Climate Field Reconstruction CFR methods, which could show how climate patterns had developed over large spatial areas, making the reconstruction useful for investigating natural variability and long-term oscillations as well as for comparisons with patterns produced by climate models.
The CFR method made more use of climate information embedded in remote proxies, but was more dependent than CPS on assumptions that relationships between proxy indicators and large-scale climate patterns remained stable over time. They then teamed up with Raymond S.
They were able to detect that the multiple proxies were varying in a coherent oscillatory way, indicating both the multidecadal pattern in the North Atlantic and a longer-term oscillation of roughly years in the surrounding region. Their study did not calibrate these proxy patterns against a quantitative temperature scale, and a new statistical approach was needed to find how they related to surface temperatures in order to reconstruct past temperature patterns.
Hughes to develop a new statistical approach to reconstruct underlying spatial patterns of temperature variation combining diverse datasets of proxy information covering different periods across the globe, including a rich resource of tree ring networks for some areas and sparser proxies such as lake sediments, ice cores and corals, as well as some historical records.
Their method was based on separate multiple regressions between each proxy record or summary and all of the leading principal components of the instrumental record. The least squares simultaneous solution of these multiple regressions used covariance between the proxy records.
The results were then used to reconstruct large-scale patterns over time in the spatial field of interest defined as the empirical orthogonal functionsor EOFs using both local relationships of the proxies to climate and distant climate teleconnections.
Since using all of the large numbers of tree ring records would have overwhelmed the sparse proxies from the polar regions and the tropicsthey used principal component analysis PCA to produce PC summaries representing these large datasets, and then treated each summary as a proxy record in their CFR analysis.
Their original draft ended in as most reconstructions only went that far, but an anonymous peer reviewer of the paper suggested that the curve of instrumental temperature records should be shown up to the present to include the considerable warming that had taken place between and The paper announced a new statistical approach to find patterns of climate change in both time and global distribution, building on previous multiproxy reconstructions.
The authors concluded that "Northern Hemisphere mean annual temperatures for three of the past eight years are warmer than any other year since at least AD", and estimated empirically that greenhouse gases had become the dominant climate forcing during the 20th century.
Hegerl described their method as "quite original and promising", which could help to verify model estimates of natural climate fluctuations and was "an important step towards reconstructing space—time records of historical temperature patterns".
Later reports appeared in TimeU. In the CBS interview, John Roberts repeatedly asked him if the study proved that humans were responsible for global warming, to which he would go no further than that it was "highly suggestive" of that inference.
Most proxy data are inherently imprecise, and Mann said: They are somewhat sizable as one gets farther back in time, and there is reasonable uncertainty in any given year.
There is quite a bit of work to be done in reducing these uncertainties. Jones thought the study would provide important comparisons with the findings of climate modelingwhich showed a "pretty reasonable" fit to proxy evidence. He noted that it used almost all the available long-term proxy climate series, "and if the new multivariate method of relating these series to the instrumental data is as good as the paper claims, it should be statistically reliable.
He asserted that "almost all of the warming described in the article took place before —long before major changes to the greenhouse effect—and the scientific methodology guarantees that the early s should appear as the warmest years", citing the papers by Jones to support his view that all of the warming took place between and This era is known as the Medieval Warm Period.
It said that the Medieval Warm Period predated industrial greenhouse gas emissions, and had a natural origin. They took issue with tree ring reconstructions by Briffa et al.
They reiterated the suggestion that MBH98 only went back to to avoid showing the Medieval Warm Period, and implied that it too suffered from the tree ring divergence problem which actually affected a different reconstruction and not MBH Michaels subsequently gave Mann the opportunity to post a reply on the website in September Barnett and Simon Tett had independently produced a "Composite Plus Scale" CPS reconstruction extending back for a thousand years, comparing tree ring, coral layer, and glacial proxy records, but not specifically estimating uncertainties.
As Bradley recalls, Mann's initial view was that there was too little information and too much uncertainty to go back so far, but Bradley said "Why don't we try to use the same approach we used in Nature, and see if we could push it back a bit further?
We can actually say something, although there are large uncertainties.Stick to the Core or Go for More Stick to the Core of Go for More HBS case: Stick to the core or Go for More.
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Advaark achieved phenomenal success selling one service very well. But now customers are asking for more, creating a strategic dilemma that could tear the company apart.
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Stick to the Core or Go For More Case Study Advaark, a highly successful New York based ad company, struggles with the decision on whether or not to grow their company by adding a new service.
Advaark’s founders, Ian Rafferty and George Caldwell, quarrel over the decision to expand. Rafferty believes that expanding is an excellent.
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